The Loose Association of Wargamers

Shahbahraz wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:47 pm No one should panic, that's very unhelpful, but the reality is a lot of people are going to die, unless there is some reason you think the UK is uniquely unlike Italy?

We do have a less aging population than the Italians. Our life expectancy is 2-3 years less depending on where you get your info and proportionately Italy has twice as many people over 100 years old (0.03% compared with 0.02% of the population in the UK). From the current published data it looks like age is a very big factor with determining how many people are likely to die with the elderly being around 15 times more likely to succumb than those under 40.
The Italians also have a much higher proportion of Rural residents (31% compared to 17%) which is probably a 'swings and roundabouts' situation, less likely to catch it but further from help and proper hospital care and less likely to report it in time.
Italy does seem to have had a mortality rate from the virus which is twice that seen in China and most other places (Iran being the exception). So it's not really that the UK is uniquely unlike Italy but that Italy at present appears to be uniquely unlike everywhere else.

It's more that Italy is further along the infection curve than we are. The average age there is 46, while the UK s 40, but a proportion of the UKs younger demographic are first generation immigrants, ironically some of them from Italy... the UK born average age is much more like that of Italy.

But it is a lot further behind the curve than China, which like the UK, Spain etc.... has a mortality rate hovering between 3-3.5%. Italy has a current mortality rate exceeding 7%. In any case there's no proof that Italy has had the virus for longer as it's first case was identified on the same day (31st of January) as the UK, so if it's further along is it because it is spreading more rapidly?
But yes you are right we should expect to see a substantial number of deaths, as infections are likely to rise to close to one million (if, as seems the case, it mirrors the speed of spread of the 2009 flu epidemic) maybe even more, so on current mortality rates in the UK that's in excess of 30000 casualties Hopefully the final number will be far less though as those most susceptible will probably be falling seriously ill first and inflating early figures. I guess that we won't know the real truth for years.

BaronVonWreckedoften wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:13 pm

levied troop wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:27 pm It’s Peeler I feel most sorry for.

Oh no, don't say they've banned farting?

Isn't farting an inalienable right?

grizzlymc wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:04 am

BaronVonWreckedoften wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:13 pm

levied troop wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:27 pm It’s Peeler I feel most sorry for.

Oh no, don't say they've banned farting?

Isn't farting an inalienable right?

Yup, it's right up there with the right to bare pies.

There's an old, post Viking, Saxon Charter from York which has it all laid out in detail.

The belief is that we won’t be as bad as Italy as they have an average higher age, a different spread of the population and lower capability of response than the UK. Who knows.

I’m into the office to collect some stuff and then it’s WFH until I finish up in just over a week. No idea what it means for starting my new job

New laptop, phone, and passwords?

Turns out I’m on garden leave until they decide to return to work

Countries which are ahead of us in the curve appear to show a higher death rate not because of any real difference in the underlying mortality, (at least, not as far as we know, yet) but because initially death rates are reported based on known cases only.
It's only later that deaths among previously unreported cases become evident. and are retrospectively included in the numbers.
Pretty much everywhere seems to have initially reported a death rate of 2 - 2.7%, and later revised that figure upwards to 3.5 - 3.7%.
That rate also depends on whether your health system holds up or not.
For example, if the number of severe cases requiring ICU beds outstrips the available ICU beds, the mortality rate among that particular cohort shoots way up.
Age and underlying health conditions aren't the only risk indicators either. The Chinese mortality figures appear to indicate that some people undergo a really severe inflammatory response to the infection, regardless of their age and health.

What's the thinking behind describing Italy as having a lower capability of response? They have more ICU beds, more ventilators, more doctors and more nursing staff per head of population than the UK does. Just the usual exceptionalism? Or is there something substantive?